Snow Coming To The Passes Next Week!

The Author's View Of A Foggy Snoqualmie Pass From Chair 2, Alpental.
The Author’s View Of A Foggy Snoqualmie Pass From Chair 2, Alpental.

It’s been 211 days since we last saw snow at Snoqualmie Pass. And while we are not going to see snow there today or tomorrow, forecast models are finally showing accumulating snow down to pass level in the extended. And I could not be more happy!

Valid 04:00 pm PST, Thu 17 Nov 2016 - 156hr FcstCredit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences
Valid 04:00 pm PST, Thu 17 Nov 2016 – 156hr Fcst
Credit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences

We’ve seen incredibly warm temperatures recently due to a strong ridge of high pressure over our region, but we have a major pattern change headed our way. This ridge of high pressure will move east, allowing a front currently off our coast to come swinging on through late tonight and give us periods of rain through midday Saturday before switching to scattered showers in the afternoon. Though the storm system appears quite strong on satellite, its eastward progress is being slowed by the stubborn ridge that has been parked over our area for much of November, and it will be relatively weak by November standards by the time it swings across the I-5 corridor.

Water Vapor Imagery Over the Eastern Pacific01:00 pm PST, Fri 11 Nov 2016Credit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences
Water Vapor Imagery Over the Eastern Pacific
01:00 pm PST, Fri 11 Nov 2016
Credit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences

However, this storm will help usher out this stubborn ridge and usher in a deep trough, lowering snow levels and giving us seasonably cool temperatures. This pattern will become particularly apparent next week, when a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Eastern Pacific.

Valid 07:00 am PST, Tue 15 Nov 2016 - 99hr FcstCredit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences
Valid 07:00 am PST, Tue 15 Nov 2016 – 99hr Fcst
Credit: University of Washington Atmospheric Sciences

This pattern – ridge over the Pacific and trough along the West Coast – is a classic La Nina pattern. I expect that we’ll see this pattern a bit more than normal this year, something skiers and snowboarders are no doubt happy to hear.

There isn’t a lot of confidence in the extended forecast, but models hint at upper-level troughs dropping into the region from time to time, giving us cooler-than-normal temperatures, a little rain, and mountain snowfall.

Will ski resorts be open by Thanksgiving? I don’t think so – Thanksgiving comes early this year and none of these storms look to drop a particularly good dump of snow. But it’s a step in the right direction towards what will hopefully be a good snow year for the Pacific Northwest.

Have a nice day!
Charlie

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