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| A view of foggy Snoqualmie Pass from Chair 2, Alpental. Credit: ME! |
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| Credit: Cliff Mass |
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| Credit: Western Regional Climate Center |
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| Credit: Western Regional Climate Center |
Here is another version that is less precise but is easier to read. It shows the average snowfall at Snoqualmie Pass by month from 1949-2009.
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| Average snowfall at Snoqualmie Pass per month (1949-2009). Credit: nwBroweather |
Finally, here are some satellite pictures of snow depth from NOAA showing how much snow has fallen over the Cascades since our atmospheric river event on Halloween. Credit: National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.
Even though a large portion of the Olympics and Cascades have gotten substantial snow, including Alpental and even the top of Summit Central, Snoqualmie Pass itself has yet to see snow. This will change early next week, when an upper-level low will slide into our area and give showers and cool temperatures to the region. Snow levels will fall around 3,000 feet, right where Snoqualmie Pass lies.
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| Valid 04:00 pm PST, Wed 11 Nov 2015 – 180hr Fcst. Credit: UW WRF-GFS |
Additionally, as we continue to get cooler and darker, Eastern Washington will become significantly colder than western Washington, meaning that Snoqualmie Pass will become insulated from warmer Pacific systems sweeping the region when it has an easterly wind, keeping snow levels locally at pass level (or causing sleet/freezing rain). If Snoqualmie Pass did not have this effect, they would get much less snow. Areas near 3,000 feet on the Olympics are generally snow-free for much of the winter, and Snoqualmie Pass is actually colder during the winter than Paradise Ranger Station on Mt. Rainier at 5,400 feet (thank you Mattias Keese for the information). For example, Mt. Hebo in the Oregon Coast Range at 3,154 feet typically only has a couple feet of snow on it at various points throughout the winter, while Snoqualmie Pass averages eight feet by March.
The latest GFS model paints a pretty rainy picture for us through mid-late November, with a large atmospheric river near around Friday the 13th. While models are not good at predicting synoptic weather events more than a week in advance, they can predict trends, and they have been consistent with giving us some pretty wet weather at the end of next week. This precipitation would fall as rain at Snoqualmie Pass, but with a steady parade of storms off the Pacific and temperatures cooling quickly in the higher latitudes, I think that Summit West will be open to burn off some post-turkey calories.
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| Total accumulated rainfall from 00 UTC 11/5/2015 to 00 UTC 11/21/15. Credit: NCEP |
Speaking of snow, the annual Northwest Snow and Avalanche Workshop is occurring this Sunday at the University of Washington. I’ve actually never gone, but I’m planning on going this year. Hopefully I will see some of you down there!
Cheers,
Charlie