Monday, November 6, 2011 12:55 P.M. Forecasting is generally a low-stress profession, but there are times when you know everybody is watching your every keystroke, and this is one of those times. The models look a little bit warmer today, but not much. I seriously doubt that we will see lowland snow with this […]
Seattle Snow?
Sunday, November 6, 2011 7:13 P.M. Seattle, November 22, 2010 Now, I don’t want people to get too excited, but take a look at what the NWS said at the end of their forecast discussion this afternoon. LONG TERM… CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD REMAINED SOMEWHAT LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT […]
A Little Bit of Mountain Snow, and Possible Excitement in the Extended?
Wednesday, November 2, 2011 11:20 A.M. Valid 05:00 pm PDT Thu, 03 Nov 2011 – 36hr Fcst – UW 4km 12z WRF-GFS 24-hour snowfall The Northeast got walloped by snowfall this past weekend, but we will soon see our first pass-level snowfall event in the mountains! There will be no power outages to millions of […]
Tranquil Weather to Continue
Saturday, August 6, 2011 12:52 A.M. (up late) When storms come our way, I usually look at multiple weather models, because they all show different outcomes from the same set of present conditions. Sometimes these different outcomes are pretty similar, and other times, they are completely out of sync. When there is an especially tricky […]
Tropical Moisture – A Weather Model’s Worst Enemy
September 21, 2010 5:43 P.M. Hey guys, I have some breaking news! Ok, just kidding, it’s not really breaking news. The weather models are acting up (I wish they weren’t, THAT would be breaking news!). Tropical systems are being entrained in the westerly flow. This doesn’t necessarily mean we will have a big storm (although […]
The Art of Inconsistency
September 8, 2010 2:30 P.M. Have you ever looked at one eather forecast one day, seen it as forecasting rain, then seeing the forecast switch to sun, only to have it switch back to rain? That is what is happening in the models right now, and it is very, very hard to make accurate forecasts […]
Snow?!?!?!
I quote Abe Stephenson from September 23, 2009 at 9:05 P.M. “ok i think there is one question on everyone’s mind…. or maybe just mine. snow?!?!?!?!?” I quote this becuase this weather forecast has kind of given me an insight into what it must be like if you don’t really know what weather is coming, […]
Even more inconsistencies
October 25, 2009 11:55 P.M. Hello fellow weather enthusiasts. Today I am going to talk about the inconsistencies in the weather models regarding the Thursday storm (the same one that I talked about last week, showing a diagram of it way out in the Pacific, possibly leading to flooding over the Pacific Northwest). As you […]
A Quick Update
October 22, 2009 5:02 P.M. I just wanted to let you guys know of a couple changes in the forecast. First of all, Friday looks wetter for some and drier for others. The front is expected to not stall as much over Vancouver Island, so we will get more rain while they will get less. […]
Inconsistency in the Models
October 21, 2009 4:08 P.M. Yesterday, it looked like the models were behaving fairly consistently. They all showed a (very) strong jet stream over the area and got the systems for the most part, although they were a little wobbly on some of the details. Now, looking at the models, lots of things have changed. […]