Snow Returns To The Mountains

After the warmest first half of November on record, snow has finally reached the Cascade passes. An upper-level trough directed cool, unstable air into our region last night, giving us showers (particularly in the mountains) and a Puget Sound Convergence Zone that enhanced snowfall around Stevens Pass. Over the past 24 hours, Snoqualmie Pass has picked up 1 inch, Alpental has picked up 2 inches, and Stevens has picked up 9!

Before today, our snow season was off to a dismal start. As of November 11, these were our snow bases in inches at various NWAC (Northwest Avalanche Center) telemetry sites throughout the Cascades and Olympics. Though we can take comfort in the fact that we don’t have a negative snowpack at Crystal like we did last year, it was pretty darn bare just a couple days ago. When you consider that the first half of the month was 7.3° Fahrenheit above normal at Sea-Tac, it’s amazing that we have anything at all.

        CURRENT  CLIMATE  PER CENT   LAST  THRU 2015  THRU 2015
            DEPTH    AVERAGE  OF NORMAL  YEAR  MAX/YEAR   MIN/YEAR

HURRICANE     0       10        0         23    48/1984     0/2014
MT BAKER      1       23        4         34    69/2005     0/2014
STEVENS       0       14        0          0    47/1958     0/2015
SNOQUALMIE    0        8        0          0    28/1994     0/2015
STAMPEDE      0       12        0          0    55/1945     0/2015
MISSION       0        5        0          0    21/1994     0/2015
CRYSTAL       0       11        0        -99    37/1994     0/2014
PARADISE      0       23        0         14    70/1958     0/2008
WHITE PASS    0        7        0          0    27/1994     0/2015
TIMBERLINE    0       14        0          5    84/1984     0/2002
MEADOWS       0       12        0          0    45/1994     0/2015

Here was the snow-water-equivalent (SWE) at the time, which is the amount of water you would have if you melted all the snow on the ground.. Very little in Washington, and nothing in Oregon. To paraphrase our new president, it’s “Sad!”

Today, we are in much better shape. We still have a long ways to go, but this is encouraging.

It’s not just the Pacific Northwest that’s low on snow. In fact, the Northern Cascades are one of the snowiest places West of the Rockies right now. Here is the “West-Wide SWE Map,” which shows the SWE for various SNOTEL basins throughout the West.

Thankfully, snow is coming for them too! Here’s the predicted snowfall over the West for the next 72 hours. The Cascades will get a little more snow, but various mountain ranges on Wyoming get a lot more.

Over the next 72 hour time period, the Cascades will get another dose of snow, though snow levels will be higher this time around, meaning the lower passes such as Snoqualmie will likely see rain.

Though the extended forecast looks slightly warmer than normal, it also appears a little bit wetter than normal. Models hint at a La Nina-esque pattern developing, with a ridge near 150 W and a deep trough off our coast helping direct most of the action into California. This is a decent pattern for snow in the Cascades and a great one for snow in higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

 I don’t see ski resorts having an early opening, but I’m optimistic that we’ll start building a base over the next couple weeks.

Have a nice night!

Charlie