Before I discuss this landmark bill signed by President Trump, I have the pleasure of announcing some very good news regarding WeatherTogether! We finally have automatically updating model charts online! You can find these charts at http://weathertogether.net/models. Many things remain on the “to-do list,” such as making an elegant webpage, getting the charts to upload as early as possible, and of course simply making more charts. We’ll take one thing at a time and see where this project leads us! If you are interested in contributing in any way, shape, or form, let me know in the comments below or send me an email at charlie@weathertogether.net.
On Wednesday, April 18, President Trump signed a major piece of weather legislation that will focus on improving U.S. weather forecasting. The bill has five main parts: United States Weather Research and Forecasting Improvement, Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation, Weather Satellite and Data Innovation, Federal Weather Coordination, and the Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2017.
This is exactly the type of bill that I like. The bill emphasizes collaboration between different governmental branches, universities, and the private sector. Unfortunately, there has been embarrassingly little collaboration between different government agencies – for example, the Navy has their own model (NOGAPS) that is an inferior performer to NOAA’s flagship model, the GFS, and the Air Force dropped the model it used (WRF) in favor of the UK model in summer 2015. I don’t think the founding fathers would be very happy with the Air Force!
Artist: Currier and Ives, 1867
Retrieved from www.skullsinthestars.com
Moreover, this bill emphasizes resilience and preparedness for severe weather events. Given that the cost of weather-related disasters over the past 30 years is in the hundreds of billions of dollars with thousands of lives lost, relatively paltry investments in improving weather forecasting and communication will certainly pay for themselves over the long run.
Credit: NCEI
Here’s a summary of the five parts of the bill. You can find the full bill here.
Title I: United States Weather Research and Forecasting Improvement
Title I calls on NOAA’s OAR (Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) to conduct a program focusing on improving weather forecasting, particularly for high-impact events that endanger life and property. This program will not only focus on improving numerical weather prediction, but will work to expand observational networks, including radar coverage and capabilities. Though Washington’s radar coverage was vastly improved with the addition of the Langley Hill radar in 2011, Oregon’s radar coverage is sorely lacking.
Credit: NOAA Radar Operations Center
This bill also calls for improvements in forecast communication, something that is extremely important for high impact weather events. There have been many recent documented cases where models correctly predicted an event but people were taken by surprise by that event, indicating a need to improve communication between forecasters/the media and the public.
Title II: Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation
Title II directs the NWS to collect and utilize information to improve subseasonal and seasonal temperature forecasting (subseasonal is 2 weeks-3 months, seasonal is 3 months-2 years). Again, there is an emphasis on high-impact events like droughts, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. Giving advance lead time for the potential for an increased threat of high-impact events will allow agencies to plan accordingly.
Seasonal forecasting is notoriously inaccurate… just ask the southern Californians who were promised a parade of storms for the 2015-2016 “Godzilla” El Nino winter and ended up drier than normal! Hopefully we will see improvements in seasonal prediction and thus be better prepared for the weather ahead.
Title III: Weather Satellite and Data Innovation
Title III directs NOAA to complete the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (aptly abbreviated COSMIC), which is a weather satellite program that uses GPS to obtain observations. Weather satellites provide over 99% of data fed into numerical weather models, and this program will only increase the amount of data available to feed into them, resulting in more accurate forecasts.
Title III also provides for technology transfers between the NWS, universities, and the private sector to improve forecasting. In the case of the private sector, these can be in the form of contracts, so that organizations can contribute to U.S. weather prediction and make money doing so. With any luck, this will usher in an era of increased collaboration between different institutions and corporations instead of having them operate in their own spheres.
Title IV: Federal Weather Coordination
Title IV directs NOAA to continue its Environmental Information Services Working group, an advisory committee to NOAA focusing on weather research and opportunities to improve communications between weather stakeholders. Though this program is already in existence, the fact that it is highlighted in this bill serves as a “heads up” to NOAA and other agencies that we are expecting the “three Cs” – cooperation, coordination, and communication – going forward.
Title V: Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2017
Title V will improve the existing United States Tsunami Warning system to increase tsunami forecast accuracy, ensure full coverage of coastal areas, and reduce false alarms. It also provides assistance to local NWS offices to help them most effectively relay tsunami warnings to their communities. Additionally, it calls for outreach plans that improve resilience in at-risk communities. This was Washington Senator Maria Cantwell’s legislation, and it makes sense; our region is woefully prepared for the next megathrust Cascadia earthquake and tsunami.
All in all, this bill authorizes 170 million dollars toward these programs, though these funds have yet to allocated. I believe that this 170 million is NOT additional funding and is simply being reallocated within NWS. Still, I’m hopeful that this bill, with its emphasis on collaboration and preparedness, will greatly improve U.S. numerical weather prediction, forecast communication, and resiliency, particularly in the face of severe weather.
