Freezing Rain Out, Flooding Rain In

Freezing rain is finally over for most of Western Washington. I went out for a walk around Sandpoint Way earlier this evening, and though temperatures were above freezing and the roads were bare and wet, the sidewalks were still a slippery, icy mess. Reports ranged from around 1/8″ of an inch of ice near Bothell to close to 3/8″ of an inch over Sea-Tac Airport and 0.5″ out by West Seattle. While the ice wasn’t thick enough to cause widespread power outages, it brought transportation to a standstill. Sea-Tac Airport temporarily closed its runways due to ice, King County metro suspended bus service, and, in the words of WSDOT, there were “too many collisions and spinouts to report.”

Portland and the Gorge were cold enough that the initial precipitation Thursday night fell as sleet and freezing rain totals weren’t as high as initially feared, with around 0.25″ common throughout Portland proper. However, much of Portland is still seeing subfreezing temps as arctic, easterly winds continue to blow through the Gorge, and light freezing rain/sleet/snow is expected later tonight into early tomorrow. Portland proper likely won’t rise above freezing until midday tomorrow, and areas deep in the Columbia River Gorge like Hood River, as well as all of the Cascade Passes, may not rise above the freezing mark until Christmas Day. If you absolutely must travel across the Cascades tomorrow, I’d attempt to travel as soon as possible before snow transitions into heavy sleet or freezing rain in the afternoon, as the passes may be closed by then. Unfortunately, even if you live directly in Portland, I’d prepare alternate plans for any Christmas Eve arrangements, as roads may be impassable over a large portion of the city through midday tomorrow due to a layer of glaze on the roadways.

Saturday will feature the first of several wet, warm, and windy storms slated to impact the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. A strong front will quickly move through Washington and NW Oregon, giving several hours of moderate-to-heavy rainfall, with 0.5 – 1″ possible in the lowlands and 2-5″ possible in the mountains. Great news for refilling reservoirs, many of which have been drafting to help fulfill the high power demand this week.

Forecast 12-hour accumulated precip from 4am – 4pm Sat 12/24/2022 from GFS model
Credit: Pivotal Weather

Normally, this wouldn’t be enough to cause river flooding, but with snow levels near 7,000 feet and plenty of low-elevation snow primed to melt, minor river flooding is possible in spots. The Stillaguamish is one of several rivers across Western Washington currently forecast to experience minor flooding.

Credit: Northwest River Forecast Center

Christmas Day will be a day between storms, and by next week, the jet stream should dip slightly south towards Northern California. This will bring desperately-needed rain to the California lowlands and heavy snow to the Sierra Nevada while still bringing wet and windy conditions to the Pacific Northwest.

Accumulated Precipitation forecast from 4pm Fri 12/23 to 4am Wed 12/28

Temperatures will moderate and snow levels should fall back to 3000-5000 feet by the middle of next week, bringing an end to the river flooding threat and allowing snowpack to resume building at the ski resorts. It’s been such a busy time for meteorologists lately… I’m looking forward to some more traditional winter weather ahead!

Happy holidays and stay safe out there!
Charlie

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