The warmest temperatures of the year are on tap for this weekend into early next week, and we’ll have super low tides to go along with the hot weather. This post ended up being kinda (dare I say, unnecessarily?) long, so here’s a quick summary.
- Expect a warming trend from now through Tuesday for the Central Valley and the Pacific NW, with very warm temperatures persisting Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be the warmest days of the year for the Pacific NW, and Sunday – Tuesday should bring record heat to the Central Valley.
- Triple digit heat will move into Eastern Washington and Oregon by Tuesday, with temperatures rising into the upper 100s in the warmest spots in the Columbia Basin on Wednesday.
- A moderate onshore push will occur Wednesday evening/Thursday morning, bringing more typical early June weather to Western Washington and Western Oregon Thursday and Friday with morning clouds, afternoon sunshine, and slightly above-average temperatures.
- Wetter/cooler weather may arrive next weekend.
- Lastly: there will be super low tides this Memorial Day weekend (I’m heading out to the tideflat right after I finish this blog!), so be sure to hit the beaches if you can! But be sure to wear LOTS of sunscreen if you do so!
If I wasn’t meteorologist, I would have likely become a marine biologist. My father is an avid outdoorsman and introduced me to fishing at a very young age, and I’ve had a deep love of the ocean for as long as I can remember. Some of my favorite memories as a child are going up to Tofino, a town on the West Coast of Vancouver Island, to go fishing, crabbing, and beachcombing in the summer. The salmon are so much larger and more plentiful there than Puget Sound, and if the salmon aren’t biting, you can go jigging at near-shore reefs and pick up a rockfish in seconds, or try your luck halibut fishing on the sandy banks further offshore. My passion was further cemented when I took a marine biology class in high school, where we covered everything from the Big Bang and the formation of the solar system to the anatomy and evolution of increasingly complex vertebrates. I loved our unit on the biology of Puget Sound, where we had to memorize the scientific names of many of the Sound’s common invertebrates. I’ll admit, I thought it was kinda pointless at the time, but now, whenever I see an Anthopleura xanthogrammica or Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis, I crack a smile and reminisce on how fun and exciting that class was.
Image taken 5/9/2021
The same year I was taking that marine biology class, my parents bought a beachhouse on Whidbey Island nestled along the shores of Cultus Bay on the very southern tip of the island. Cultus Bay is a huge tideflat that extends up to 2-3 miles out to sea at low tide, and it’s a rich ecosystem with tons of sand dollars, eelgrasses, eagles, baitfish, and clams. I absolutely love clamming and beachcombing, so living on the shores of Cultus Bay is pretty tough beat. Cultus Bay is also extremely exposed to southerly windstorms, so its a weather geek’s dream as well. Having a backup generator is a must, though!
Why am I pontificating about marine biology, tideflats, and clams? Well, Thursday & Friday’s tides were some of the lowest of the entire year, and Saturday, Sunday, and even Monday will all have very low tides. And the weather will be perfect for tideflatting and clamming through Monday, with sunny skies and well-above-average temperatures far as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the entire Western US. Tuesday and Wednesday won’t feature the same sort of extreme low tides as those we’ll see this Memorial Day weekend, but they’ll be the warmest days of the entire period, with Portland and many other locales in the Willamette Valley flirting with record highs on Tuesday.
Tidal Predictions:
The lowest tides of this lunar cycle occurred on Thursday and Friday, but “minus tides” (tides with a height below 0.0 feet) will persist through Memorial Day. The lowest tides of a lunar cycle always occur a day or two after a near or full moon.
Credit: Jeff Dairiki
The Weather Forecast:
If we take a look at the combined infrared satellite/500mb height chart from the University of Washington, we can already see a ridge of high pressure building along the West Coast, completely blocking a strong low pressure system offshore from moving inland.
Credit: University of Washington
Credit: WeatherTogether models
This ridge will strengthen and move further inland on Sunday and Monday. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for California’s Central Valley from noon Sunday to 8pm Tuesday due to a strong thermal trough over the Valley. Sacramento is expected to reach the lower 100s on Sunday and the upper 100s on Monday, both of which would be daily records.
⚠️ An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for portions of interior #NorCal Sunday-Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around 108° with overnight lows remaining warm in the mid 60s to 70s. This will increase the threat for heat related illnesses. #cawx pic.twitter.com/WDpwuHEkMs
— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) May 28, 2021
Credit: WeatherTogether Models
This thermal trough will continue to build north Monday night into Tuesday, with Tuesday likely being the warmest day for Western Washington and Western Oregon. Portland’s record high on Tuesday is 92 and current forecasts are calling for the low 90s, so we have a good chance of tying or breaking the record. The graphic below does a good job of showing how this thermal trough will begin to peter out north of Olympia, so the Puget Sound area isn’t expected to approach record highs on Tuesday but will be significantly warmer-than-average nonetheless.
Credit: University of Washington
By Wednesday, the hottest weather will shift to Eastern Washington and Eastern Oregon, with widespread triple-digit temperatures likely. Portland will be slightly cooler than Tuesday due to increasing onshore flow, but temperatures should still flirt with 90 for the City of Roses and 80 degrees for the Emerald City on Wednesday. However, a strong onshore push will occur Wednesday night into Thursday, and temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler on Thursday. Note the strong onshore pressure gradients across Western Washington and Western Oregon at 5pm Wednesday as this onshore push begins to make its way inland.
Credit: University of Washington
A much stronger onshore push will Thursday night into Friday as a robust upper-level trough moves inland. This is the type of system that gives the Pacific NW its infamous “Juneuary” weather. Although these type of systems don’t tend to bring a ton of moisture, they bring cooler-than-average temperatures, well-above-average humidities, and the precipitation that they do bring is generally not in the form of thunderstorms due to the relatively stable nature of the airmass.
Credit: WeatherTogether Models
All of these factors moisten fuels and reduce the danger of lightning-caused ignitions, which is great for fire danger. Unfortunately, the strong onshore is a bit of a double edged sword, as the strong winds can allow existing fires to quickly progress eastward. Thankfully, fire activity over the Pacific NW is minimal right now, so even though these stronger winds will increase fire danger in the short term, , the cooler temperatures, higher humidities, and light precipitation should result in slightly decreased fire danger in the weeks ahead.
Have a fantastic Memorial Day weekend and enjoy the low tides and hot temperatures over the next few days!
Charlie
