Tropical Moisture – A Weather Model’s Worst Enemy

September 21, 2010 5:43 P.M. Hey guys, I have some breaking news! Ok, just kidding, it’s not really breaking news. The weather models are acting up (I wish they weren’t, THAT would be breaking news!). Tropical systems are being entrained in the westerly flow. This doesn’t necessarily mean we will have a big storm (although […]

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The Art of Inconsistency

September 8, 2010 2:30 P.M. Have you ever looked at one eather forecast one day, seen it as forecasting rain, then seeing the forecast switch to sun, only to have it switch back to rain? That is what is happening in the models right now, and it is very, very hard to make accurate forecasts […]

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Here comes the cold (dadadada) + What’s up with Probcast?

December 5, 2009 9:46 P.M. Greetings. Looking at the latest radar image, it does not seem like we are going to get much in the way of snow tonight, as most of the snow appears to be heading east of the area. Most of it is wrapped around the northeastern corner of the Olympics by […]

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Instability

November 7, 2009 7:16 P.M. What is instability? I often mention instability as the cause of post-frontal showers after the cold front of a storm system has passed in the PacNW, but what does it really mean for the atmosphere to be unstable? It means that the atmosphere has a steep temperature gradient. Our surface […]

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