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FINALLY!
After being in El Nino conditions off-and-on since autumn 2014, we are finally solidly back into the “neutral” area, and it is looking increasingly likely that we will be in a La Nina regime for the latter half of 2016 into 2017.
With the exception of Nino 4, all Nino regions have near-average SST. All are downtrending.
Additionally, temperature anomalies below the surface are negative, and, accordingly, there is a negative heat anomaly in the upper ocean. This is a very rapid shift towards cooler water temperatures, but such a drastic shift is characteristic of these super strong El Ninos. A similar thing happened in 1998, when we went from the strongest El Nino on record to a moderate-to-strong La Nina within less than a year, with that La Nina burying Mt. Baker ski resort under 95 inches of snow for the 1998-1999 ski season.
This La Nina does not look to be quite as powerful as the one in 1998-1999, but it should hopefully still bring cooler and wetter than normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest next autumn and winter. We know that La Ninas are great for mountain snowfall, but they are also generally good for salmon as they cause increased upwelling and feed for all types of organisms in our coastal waters. Salmon have been hit particularly hard over the past couple years due to the Blob, El Nino, and low streamflows in the summer and the autumn as they travel back up the rivers to spawn, and now that the ocean has cooled back to a more normal temperature, salmon stocks should finally start to rebound off some of the lows they have experienced as of late. More salmon + more mountain snow = more smiles, and happier Pacific Northwesterners.
However, just like El Nino, La Nina can have adverse impacts throughout the world. La Ninas decrease wind shear over the Atlantic, leading to more Atlantic Hurricanes, and California is typically drier and warmer than normal during La Nina years, adding to their drought concerns. It didn’t help that this El Nino year was a major letdown in the rain department for Southern California either.
But one thing that trumps all of this is that La Ninas bring an increased chance of lowland snowstorms, and we are way overdue for one of those here in Seattle. The last time we had a significant lowland snowstorm was January 2012, one I remember clearly because I unknowingly decided to get in a snowball fight with a minor league baseball player (AA) and ended up getting the wind knocked out of me. Although I’m not ready to get killed on the battlefield again, I am certainly ready to get a another major dumping here in the lowlands. It has been far too long!
