Smoky and Hot Through Thursday, Then Some Relief

Hi all! I’ll start by giving a “life update” of sorts: I’ve moved from being a meteorologist at Avangrid to being a meteorologist at Portland General Electric! At Avangrid, my work was primarily focused on very short-term, hourly energy forecasts for Avangrid’s wind farms along the Columbia River Gorge, and I worked a rotating shift with several other meteorologists. At PGE, I’m the only meteorologist at the company, so I’m more of a “Jack of all trades” for all things weather-related. I’ll also have a lot of time to work on various projects, so hopefully I can avoid the “master of none” connotation that comes with being said Jack!

I’ll still do a lot of forecasting for the power output from PGE’s wind farms, but I’ll also help with forecasting “load,” which is simply the electricity demand on the grid. Load is heavily affected by weather – for example, the load is much higher than usual during a brutal heat wave during the summer due to all the air conditioning used by customers. And of course, when threatening windstorms/icestorms appear on the horizon, I’ll help decision-makers plan accordingly so that they can help restore power in the most efficient way possible.

I didn’t have much of a sabbatical between jobs – I left Avangrid Saturday morning 8/4 after a night shift and began at PGE Monday morning 8/6. My job is a Monday-Friday gig and not shift work like my job at Avangrid, but I’ll need to be in the office at 4 am to help prepare the company for its day ahead, so I’ll still kinda be working nights in some capacity. The night shifts at Avangrid were too fun, there was no way I could just abandon them completely.

I’ll certainly miss my job at Avangrid. I had a fantastic time there and learned a ton. However, I am also really looking forward to the challenges that PGE has to offer. I’ll still post on this blog so long as my posts do not conflict with the work I do at PGE.

Current conditions:

Let’s start out with the obvious: it is HOT out there! We currently have an “Excessive Heat Warning” over our area until 11 pm Thursday. Portland Int’l Airport “only” reached 93 today due to haze reducing incoming solar radiation, but temperatures should surge into the upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday as the upper-level ridge responsible for our warmth further strengthens.

This upper-level ridge is stationed almost directly over our area, and to its west is a deep cutoff low that will slowly move west throughout the week. This cutoff low will become partially absorbed by a longwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska as it moves west, and it will eventually pass through our area as a more compact shortwave trough on Friday. The juxtaposition of this cutoff low and the ridge gives us southwesterly winds at upper-levels, and these winds are helping to direct smoke from several fires over Southern Oregon and one in Northern California into the area, resulting in the dull, dirty, worsening haze we’ve seen over the past few days.

The smoke from these fires is thick enough that high temperatures today and Wednesday-Thursday were/will be several degrees cooler relative to what they would be under bluebird skies.

The largest fires responsible for the smoke are listed below. The information was last updated at 11:20 AM this morning (Tuesday 8/7). Data retrieved from the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center.

Taylor Creek Fire: 10 miles W of Grants Pass, OR, 41,103 acres burned, 38% contained

Klondike: 9 miles NW of Selma OR, 30,873 acres, 15% contained

South Umpqua Complex: Complex of fires 10-20 miles SE of Tiller, OR, 28,723 acres, 18% contained

Natchez Fire: 15 miles SE of Cave Junction, OR and 3 miles S of the CA/OR state line, 10,302 acres burned, 40% contained

Further north, the South Valley Road fire 10 miles SW of Dufur, OR has burnt 20,026 acres and is 65% contained. The Cougar Creek and Crescent Mountain fires along the NE Washington Cascades are both 0% contained and are rapidly growing. As of 11:20 am, the  Cougar Creek fire had burnt 6169 acres, and the Crescent Mountain fire had burnt 7671 acres, but satellite imagery showed these fires really flaring up in the afternoon/evening as onshore winds strengthened, so we’ll see how large they are tomorrow morning. Most of these fires were started by lightning, the only confirmed human-caused fire in the Pacific Northwest is the Angel Springs fire, which is 8 miles NE of Davenport, WA (40 miles ENE of Spokane), has burnt 5,043 acres, and is 15% contained.

With all the smoke in the air, you would think that air quality would be absolutely terrible, but it’s actually only “moderate” over the vast majority of the state.

I don’t know about you, but Wishram, WA in the Columbia River Gorge looks far worse than just “moderate.”

The reason for the discrepancy between visibility and air quality is that the winds in the upper and lower atmosphere have different origins. For example, the Gorge had light westerly winds the past few days and light northeasterly winds this afternoon, meaning the Gorge was not directly downwind of any fires. Meanwhile, the haze in the upper atmosphere is being spread into our area via southwesterly flow aloft.

Forecast

As I mentioned before, Wednesday and Thursday will be HOT with temperatures in the upper 90s as this low remains too far offshore to give us any sort of marine push.

With southwesterly flow at mid-levels, Wednesday and Thursday are also expected to be uncommonly humid for the Pacific Northwest. Dewpoints in the Portland metro area should approach or exceed 60 both days, and while our friends east of the Continental Divide may scoff at us for being such humidity wimps, Pacific Northwest lifers like myself will definitely notice the humidity. Heat indices in the Portland metro area should be on either side of 100 both days, so be sure you have plenty of water and limit physical activity if need be. Even better, head out to the coast, as temperatures will be in the 60s both days there!

But even if you decide to stay in the City of Roses, you can at least be assured that Friday will mark a return to normalcy as this cutoff low is absorbed by the trough over the Gulf of Alaska and pushes through the area, giving us a much-needed decrease in temperatures. Additionally, the transition from southerly flow aloft ahead of the trough to westerly flow with it/northwesterly behind it will help usher out the haze over the region.

I should mention that a marine push like this is actually really bad for wildfires even though temperatures decrease significantly. The fuels are already tinder-dry, and the strong winds that result from the push will help spread these fires eastward. Hopefully the firefighters can make some progress on these fires before this marine push to minimize their inevitable growth then.

Saturday will be even cooler than Friday, and we may see some showers around as the trough axis pushes through the region. But come Sunday, another ridge will start building in the NE Pacific and will move onshore next week, resulting in a warming trend and temperatures once again soaring into the 90s by the middle of next week.

Tl;dr: We currently have a ridge over the region and will have temperatures in the upper 90s for both Wednesday and Thursday, and with southwesterly flow aloft, widespread haze from the SW Oregon fires will continue and dewpoints will be around 60 degrees in the Portland metro area both days, resulting in heat indices near 100. Highs Friday will drop way back down to 80 as a shortwave trough ushers a strong marine push into the area, and we’ll be a few degrees cooler on Saturday as the trough axis passes through the region, potentially giving us some light precipitation as it does so. But by Sunday, another ridge will begin to build over the area, resulting in sunny skies and gradually warming temperatures that could reach the mid 90s by the middle of next week.

Thanks for reading, even if it was just the tl;dr!!!

Charlie