Mountain Snow to Kick Off 2020

So far this year, I’ve only got one day of skiing in, and I count myself lucky to even have that! I went with some weather colleagues up to Mt. Hood Meadows a few Saturdays back, and the amount of snow cover there was downright depressing. On the other hand, if I can get up there some other time when there is tons of fresh snow, it’ll feel like a world-class ski resort.

And thankfully, we may not have to wait long for those dreams of snow to become a reality. All models are insistent on a pattern change to much cooler and wetter weather late Friday, and they hint at it staying around for the next two weeks!

A GFS Ensemble “Spaghetti Plot” showing the predicted 850 hPa temperatures and 6-hour precipitation. Note how the blue temperature line (the ensemble average) is below climatology from January 4 onward, and how above-average precipitation is expected for the next two weeks.
Credit: WeatherTogether Models

Thursday will be pleasant enough, with a big ridge of high pressure over the area sending an incoming system to our north and leaving us mainly dry with cloudy skies, though I can’t rule out a few sprinkles for our friends over Southwest Washington. The Puget Sound region should see light drizzle, but nothing that would remotely require an umbrella.

But by Friday, this ridge will have moved over the Intermountain West and the first in a series of strong storms will enter the region.

500mb temperature, heights, and wind at 4pm PST Friday 1/3. Note how the ridge has moved over the Intermountain West and how a strong upper-level low centered over Anchorage is directing strong, zonal flow across the Northern Pacific. A series of storm systems embedded in this flow will impact us over the next 10 days, giving us below-average temperatures, above-average precipitation, and tons of snow in the mountains.
Credit: WeatherTogether models

Precipitation with this system is expected to hold off until Friday night, but heavy showers should persist through Saturday. With strong onshore flow, we’ll see very effective orographic enhancement (where the windward slopes of the mountains see higher precipitation), and lots of snow should fall over the ski resorts.

Another front will come through on Sunday, and strong onshore flow on Monday should support continued moderate/heavy precipitation in the lowlands and heavy snow in the mountains. Systems will continue to push through the area every 1-2 days next week. The snowfall maps from the University of Washington WRF model are a snow-lovers dream… feet upon feet of snow for Washington/Oregon Cascades, and metres upon metres over the BC Coast Range!

180-hour snow accumulation from 4am 1/1/2020 to 4pm 1/8/2020
Credit: University of Washington

Some models are hinting at a pattern shift to colder weather by mid-January, but it’s way too early to be talking about the “s” word at this time.

Here’s to 2020’s weather being a bit more interesting than 2019’s!
Charlie

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